Going to Adelaide in about 6 hours time. Would leave this stagnant until the 3rd of July. Hopefully I'll have the energy to update then before going for July Camp 08 from the 4th of July to 7th July.
side note:
My friend happened to be staring at me one day. I wondered why when she finally pulled back. Upon inquiring, she had thought at first that I have make up on.
"Make-up?", I wondered aloud.
"Nope. Nothing."
Oh no! I realised a few minutes ago what she meant. EYE BAGS! the dreadful things that everyone has complained about, the thing that I was most grateful for NOT having has FINALLY appeared!
Looking back, I felt that I didn't study enough. Yet I have stayed up late on that pretext. Note to self: NEVER attempt studying at the computer again! Even though $ seems wasted from printing as opposed to using the university's electricity, but it's WAY WAY WAY WAY WAY more effective!
RESOLUTIONS
If I can pass this semester, I resolve to work harder @ what I have. To understand and memorise each topic well before the semester break. To complete each tutorial before the class and to redo them again after to ensure full understanding. I should have done this at the start of 1st year =x
Please pray for me =( I am almost certain that I would fail a subject, at which, I won't be able to graduate by the end of the year. Not that I have secured a job. Have to apply for PR. Maybe get to bum around for a few months by working part time to pay off rent. Would i get the chance to stop living off my parents hard earned money by the end of this year?
Hai. What is your plan for me, God?
Saturday, June 28, 2008
Thursday, June 26, 2008
Sun rise
Took this from my apartment one morning.
Exams. 14 more hours time. Should I look forward to the next sun rise?
side note:
Adelaide, July Camp 08 and ski trip. Gearing up. I want to make daifuku too! =)
Monday, June 23, 2008
旺旺雪饼！
Time bought: 9am 21/06/08
Contents: 555g worth
Net weight: not stated (table of contents thrown away)
Time till end of consumption: 10pm 23/06/08
Saturday, June 21, 2008
Can i graduate?
Graduation
Part I
When I first thought about it, yes, I had the same thoughts as you. Would I be able to graduate? So far the 2 subjects that I have sat the exams for, were pretty screwed up. Scratch that. It WAS TOTALLY SCREWED UP. But somehow, I don't feel the stress. But goodness me, it's my last year isn't it? It's like how can someone, who has been studying in university for 3 years fail?? I guess the worst thing of it all is how slack I have become. My computer here is such a darling that I can't live without it. Knowing that the exams creep near, I have successfully repelled the immense desire to continue on Phoenix Wright: Trials and Tribulations which would take up hours. Unfortunately, this game called Free cell and Hexic has now happily got me distracted so easily again. =x Am I able to graduate? I wonder.
Part II
This, my friend, is where it gets technical. But then again, given that I hate jargon myself, I love trying to explain things simply, which gets me nowhere because that's not the specific terms that lecturers are looking for when they mark exam scripts do they?
Graduation -
i) Whittaker-Henderson Graduation Method
This formula is amazing as it allows us to choose between smoothness and adherence to data when graduating crude rates. (simple words, in a sample, this method allows us to adjust data to remove random errors through ensuring smooth transitions between data as well as portraying the important features of the mortality rates)
ii) Graphical Method of Graduation (MOST DIFFICULT)
- used to 'tidy up' graduation performed using other methods.
method applied: fit a curve by hand that has the same function as (i) without the mathematics.
If data is scanty, we are allowed to group them and calculate them using weighted mean age.
Logarithmic scale is suggested.
Advantages:
1) useful for scanty data
2) allows for use of judgment
3) can hand polish to get good results
Disadvantages:
1) difficult to apply! (requires experience)
2) hard to achieve high degree of smoothness - cant be used to produce standard table
3) no unique solution
iii) Univariate Delta Method
Making use of Taylor series expanded about X = μ
f (X) ≈ f(μ) + f ' (μ)(X-μ) + ...
where μ = E(X)
E(f(X)) = f(u)
Var(f(X)) = (f ' (μ))2
iv) Graduation by mathematical formula
This is the most complicated graduation which most likely would come up in the exams!
step 1:
Obtain estimates
step 2:
choose mathematical function. E.g. Gompertz' Law (remember to check for linearity)
step 3:
Parameter Estimation using
a) Maximum Likelihood Estimation
b) Weighted least squares ∑ wx (qx - F(x))2
c) Minimum Chi-Squared
step4:
Calculate graduated values - aka substitution
step5:
Test the fit of the graduation
tests include:
1) chi-squared distribution
2) individualised standardised deviations (ISD) test (with range)
3) cumulative standardised deviations test (no overlapping ages!)
4) signs test (N~bin(n,1/2))
5) runs test
v) Graduation by reference to standard table
most useful if:
- little data
- similar mortality experience
- for select rates
To find relationship between our data and standard table's data, plot a simple graph (linearity)
parameters a,b can be found using
1) plotting
2) methods of least squares
3) weighted least squares
vi) Graduation using Cubic Spline (special case of mathematical formula)
Alrighty! That was 25% of the material to be covered in the exams. Easy to just say this but to understand it. ... Going to have to look through it .. again.. and again.. and again.
Breakfast appointment in 7 hours time. I should sleep for 6. Good night all.
Part I
When I first thought about it, yes, I had the same thoughts as you. Would I be able to graduate? So far the 2 subjects that I have sat the exams for, were pretty screwed up. Scratch that. It WAS TOTALLY SCREWED UP. But somehow, I don't feel the stress. But goodness me, it's my last year isn't it? It's like how can someone, who has been studying in university for 3 years fail?? I guess the worst thing of it all is how slack I have become. My computer here is such a darling that I can't live without it. Knowing that the exams creep near, I have successfully repelled the immense desire to continue on Phoenix Wright: Trials and Tribulations which would take up hours. Unfortunately, this game called Free cell and Hexic has now happily got me distracted so easily again. =x Am I able to graduate? I wonder.
Part II
This, my friend, is where it gets technical. But then again, given that I hate jargon myself, I love trying to explain things simply, which gets me nowhere because that's not the specific terms that lecturers are looking for when they mark exam scripts do they?
Graduation -
i) Whittaker-Henderson Graduation Method
This formula is amazing as it allows us to choose between smoothness and adherence to data when graduating crude rates. (simple words, in a sample, this method allows us to adjust data to remove random errors through ensuring smooth transitions between data as well as portraying the important features of the mortality rates)
ii) Graphical Method of Graduation (MOST DIFFICULT)
- used to 'tidy up' graduation performed using other methods.
method applied: fit a curve by hand that has the same function as (i) without the mathematics.
If data is scanty, we are allowed to group them and calculate them using weighted mean age.
Logarithmic scale is suggested.
Advantages:
1) useful for scanty data
2) allows for use of judgment
3) can hand polish to get good results
Disadvantages:
1) difficult to apply! (requires experience)
2) hard to achieve high degree of smoothness - cant be used to produce standard table
3) no unique solution
iii) Univariate Delta Method
Making use of Taylor series expanded about X = μ
f (X) ≈ f(μ) + f ' (μ)(X-μ) + ...
where μ = E(X)
E(f(X)) = f(u)
Var(f(X)) = (f ' (μ))2
iv) Graduation by mathematical formula
This is the most complicated graduation which most likely would come up in the exams!
step 1:
Obtain estimates
step 2:
choose mathematical function. E.g. Gompertz' Law (remember to check for linearity)
step 3:
Parameter Estimation using
a) Maximum Likelihood Estimation
b) Weighted least squares ∑ wx (qx - F(x))2
c) Minimum Chi-Squared
step4:
Calculate graduated values - aka substitution
step5:
Test the fit of the graduation
tests include:
1) chi-squared distribution
2) individualised standardised deviations (ISD) test (with range)
3) cumulative standardised deviations test (no overlapping ages!)
4) signs test (N~bin(n,1/2))
5) runs test
v) Graduation by reference to standard table
most useful if:
- little data
- similar mortality experience
- for select rates
To find relationship between our data and standard table's data, plot a simple graph (linearity)
parameters a,b can be found using
1) plotting
2) methods of least squares
3) weighted least squares
vi) Graduation using Cubic Spline (special case of mathematical formula)
Alrighty! That was 25% of the material to be covered in the exams. Easy to just say this but to understand it. ... Going to have to look through it .. again.. and again.. and again.
Breakfast appointment in 7 hours time. I should sleep for 6. Good night all.
Thursday, June 19, 2008
Chicken room?!
Ok. sorry I don't mean to mock. but it's the only form of 'entertainment' during this supposedly busy period for me.
"If you need help, please head to the chicken room?!"
For days I have been hearing ..
"If you lost something, please go to the chicken room.."
"Mr so and so.. your watch has been found.. Please go to the chicken room to claim it back.."
Etc etc
You get the point.
I just realised a minute ago. He meant CHECK IN room. The only logical explanation to what room you can find in the library won't you say..
Currently:
Lost in my textbook. First time reading it. Too many to read. Too much. On lecture 6 out of lecture 12. Have yet to practise my questions. Maybe I should stop. Maybe .. Maybe. I'm too disorganised. That's my problem. Why do I keep identifying the same problems each semester?
I'm tired.
"If you need help, please head to the chicken room?!"
For days I have been hearing ..
"If you lost something, please go to the chicken room.."
"Mr so and so.. your watch has been found.. Please go to the chicken room to claim it back.."
Etc etc
You get the point.
I just realised a minute ago. He meant CHECK IN room. The only logical explanation to what room you can find in the library won't you say..
Currently:
Lost in my textbook. First time reading it. Too many to read. Too much. On lecture 6 out of lecture 12. Have yet to practise my questions. Maybe I should stop. Maybe .. Maybe. I'm too disorganised. That's my problem. Why do I keep identifying the same problems each semester?
I'm tired.
Another random library comment
*Indian-accented*
"Your attention please! There are FREE cookies, milo and coffee available downstairs. If you are free, feel free to come down and have them."
- This service is courtesy of OCF (Overseas Christian Fellowship) Melbourne University, who somehow provides free refreshments for us POOR POOR university students mugging our lives away in some corner of the overcrowded [busy period, in the librarians' words] cold pile of bricks.
Official notice:
I am dead. Paper tomorrow @ 2.15pm and here I am, slacking away again. Shit. This is going to be one of the worst papers ever. Seriously.
Sometimes I don't ask for prayers because I feel like I deserve the punishment. Shouldn't I be glad that someone is willing to take my place? Or does it just seem like more trouble to 'repay' or to be in debt than to simply take on the punishment?
"Your attention please! There are FREE cookies, milo and coffee available downstairs. If you are free, feel free to come down and have them."
- This service is courtesy of OCF (Overseas Christian Fellowship) Melbourne University, who somehow provides free refreshments for us POOR POOR university students mugging our lives away in some corner of the overcrowded [busy period, in the librarians' words] cold pile of bricks.
Official notice:
I am dead. Paper tomorrow @ 2.15pm and here I am, slacking away again. Shit. This is going to be one of the worst papers ever. Seriously.
Sometimes I don't ask for prayers because I feel like I deserve the punishment. Shouldn't I be glad that someone is willing to take my place? Or does it just seem like more trouble to 'repay' or to be in debt than to simply take on the punishment?
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
Road Splat
That's the first thing that pops to mind when this group of locals went rushing by in front of me. One of the guy went "splat!" somewhat at the left corner of my line of sight. Unfortunately with the whole bunch of friends running at a high speed, I decided not to risk my life to help the poor fellow but to "move along" instead. =x Not a daily sight to behold upon but nonetheless reminds me why i seldom would be seen running nowadays.
Forgot to mention more about the maggots in the previous post that my housemate has courageously caught probably 80% of those squirming worms! She screamed a few times in fact when she DROPPED them but all's fine now! =) I'm not stepping out of the room otherwise!
Printed my ugly looking academic transcript for a price that I could eat 3 meals with! (well, union house food anyway) I don't think I would get the casual tutor Job for Introductory Macroeconomics but I wonder if I might for Intermediate Macroeconomics
even though I didn't apply for it.
Wushu today - Got to learn new basic moves which was super cool! Now nobody should be able to hold on to my wrist tightly anymore! Whaha. Not that many people do that to me.. Two steps in my head, bring in, pull out! Wonder if I can actually recall the action if I see these two phrases the next time..
Forgot to mention more about the maggots in the previous post that my housemate has courageously caught probably 80% of those squirming worms! She screamed a few times in fact when she DROPPED them but all's fine now! =) I'm not stepping out of the room otherwise!
Printed my ugly looking academic transcript for a price that I could eat 3 meals with! (well, union house food anyway) I don't think I would get the casual tutor Job for Introductory Macroeconomics but I wonder if I might for Intermediate Macroeconomics
even though I didn't apply for it.
Wushu today - Got to learn new basic moves which was super cool! Now nobody should be able to hold on to my wrist tightly anymore! Whaha. Not that many people do that to me.. Two steps in my head, bring in, pull out! Wonder if I can actually recall the action if I see these two phrases the next time..
Monday, June 16, 2008
1 down
At first, I thought I was going to be 'on time' with studies. Then I fell sick during week 12.
My first attempts at revising started in week 12, since i managed to squeeze all my tutes to the front of the week, ending my semester unofficially on Wednesday 3.15pm.
Week 12 flew by. Swot Vac began. It was the time when you see everyone crammed into a common study area in the library, when you get the opportunity to stay up till 3am in ballieu library, where I got the chance to 'study' with my friends from Wushu. This is the result of using the computer area and having access to this website called facebook. It was fun interacting with Mary, helping her to learn chinese though half the time she got the pinyin wrong =p Haha!
Eventually, another week flies by. The start of exams meant my laziness to come to uni, or rather, the lack of companions in using the computers and thus, the more urgent need to study on tables. My previous excuse of using computer area's tables [which were way larger] as well as my flu acting up in the presence of sharing tables with others had to be scrapped off for the benefit of this thing called a "Bachelor's Degree".
Unfortunately, this "Bachelor's Degree" thought did not stay in my head for long as i reverted once again to the ultimate strategy for procrastinating -
1) Phoenix Wright - Ace attorney
2) Phoenix Wright - Justice for All
3) Phoenix Wright - Trials and Temptations
of which i have finished 2 since the start of swot vac. Mind you, each game has at least 4 cases, each case lasting from 2 hours to 8 hours.
Eek. News flash:
Maggots have invaded the house! My housemate realised when she saw quite a number a day. Both wondered where they came from. One day, i decided to LOOK UP the ceiling. Ha.. I didn't find the source but i sure found more than a handful of them!
Ok. Back to studying AMII (actuarial modeling II).
Just a note: AMI combined with AMII with an average of 73% is what most actuarial students are working towards to get an exemption on our papers. Below are some comments to show WHY i'm studying AMII (which is on Monday) instead of Entrepreneurial Finance (which i'm uncertain of and on this Friday)
"AMI was a killer paper" (Ajohan: 2008)
"must must must study hard for AMII" (Sukanto: 2008)
"Putting ALL my hopes on AMII" (Phoon:2008)
"one last chance - AMII" (Tan: 2008)
My first attempts at revising started in week 12, since i managed to squeeze all my tutes to the front of the week, ending my semester unofficially on Wednesday 3.15pm.
Week 12 flew by. Swot Vac began. It was the time when you see everyone crammed into a common study area in the library, when you get the opportunity to stay up till 3am in ballieu library, where I got the chance to 'study' with my friends from Wushu. This is the result of using the computer area and having access to this website called facebook. It was fun interacting with Mary, helping her to learn chinese though half the time she got the pinyin wrong =p Haha!
Eventually, another week flies by. The start of exams meant my laziness to come to uni, or rather, the lack of companions in using the computers and thus, the more urgent need to study on tables. My previous excuse of using computer area's tables [which were way larger] as well as my flu acting up in the presence of sharing tables with others had to be scrapped off for the benefit of this thing called a "Bachelor's Degree".
Unfortunately, this "Bachelor's Degree" thought did not stay in my head for long as i reverted once again to the ultimate strategy for procrastinating -
1) Phoenix Wright - Ace attorney
2) Phoenix Wright - Justice for All
3) Phoenix Wright - Trials and Temptations
of which i have finished 2 since the start of swot vac. Mind you, each game has at least 4 cases, each case lasting from 2 hours to 8 hours.
Eek. News flash:
Maggots have invaded the house! My housemate realised when she saw quite a number a day. Both wondered where they came from. One day, i decided to LOOK UP the ceiling. Ha.. I didn't find the source but i sure found more than a handful of them!
Ok. Back to studying AMII (actuarial modeling II).
Just a note: AMI combined with AMII with an average of 73% is what most actuarial students are working towards to get an exemption on our papers. Below are some comments to show WHY i'm studying AMII (which is on Monday) instead of Entrepreneurial Finance (which i'm uncertain of and on this Friday)
"AMI was a killer paper" (Ajohan: 2008)
"must must must study hard for AMII" (Sukanto: 2008)
"Putting ALL my hopes on AMII" (Phoon:2008)
"one last chance - AMII" (Tan: 2008)
Friday, June 6, 2008
Most Hazardous Sports
10 Most Hazardous Sports (Forbes.com)
10. Lacrosse, Rugby, Misc. Ball Games
Estimated Number of Injuries: 85,580
Lacrosse players collided or were hit by balls and sticks, causing head and facial cuts, according to injury data from 2006. Many also injured their ankles following their falls. Rugby players suffered cuts to the lip and chin, as well as sprained necks and dislocated shoulders.
9. Skiing, Snowboarding
Estimated Number of Injuries: 96,119
Snowboarders commonly fell and hit their heads, cut their legs and faces or sprained their knees or shoulders. At least one snowboarder fell backward, hit her head and had double vision for a half hour.
8. Swimming
Estimated Number of Injuries: 164,607
Swimmers hit their heads on the bottom of pools and injured their legs while accidentally falling into pools, according to injury data reported in 2006. A two-year-old who fell off a raft also nearly drowned.
7. Soccer
Estimated Number of Injuries: 186,544
Soccer players commonly hurt their ankles after falls, twisted their knees and fractured their arms during games.
6. Exercise, Exercise Equipment
Estimated Number of Injuries: 269,249
People tripping on treadmills twisted their ankles and cut their chins, while those who fell backward off of exercise balls hit their heads. Jumping rope also caused ankle sprains
5. Baseball, Softball
Estimated Number of Injuries: 274,867
Baseball and softball players were commonly hit in the heads with bats and balls, according to injury data reported in 2006. Others hurt their ankles running bases or sliding into them
4. ATVs, Mopeds, Minibikes
Estimated Number of Injuries: 275,123
Riders of ATVs were frequently injured when they were thrown from vehicles. Among those injuries reported in 2006 were fractured wrists, dislocated hands, shoulder sprains, head cuts and lumbar strains.
3. Football (Footy)
Estimated Number of Injuries: 460,210
Fractured wrists, chipped teeth, neck strains, head lacerations, dislocated hips and jammed fingers were some of the football injuries reported in 2006.
2. Bicycling
Estimated Number of Injuries: 490,434
Bicyclists got their feet caught in spokes, fell and struck their heads, and slipped while carrying bikes up stairs. Others were hit by cars
1. Basketball
Estimated Number of Injuries: 529,837
Basketball players cut their hands, sprained their ankles and suffered eye and forehead injuries during games. Other players fractured their legs.
Wow. This is interesting. Never thought Basketball to be such a hazardous sport .. maybe I can use this piece of information to sneak away from the Sunday games after church. Perhaps I could even use this to persuade Song Ai to play soccer (#7 on this list as opposed to #1) instead of Bball now =) haha! Still, it'll be hard to get more girls to play.
Random announcement from the ballieu library today: "Your attention please. The library would like to remind the patrons that your parents do not live in the library. Please take care of your own trash. Thank You!"
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